Showing posts with label Spicy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spicy. Show all posts

Sunday, 12 October 2025

How I trade Breakouts at All Time High resistance levels

How I trade Breakouts at All Time High resistance levels:

Since I can't visibly see the next resistance level to take profit, there are 2 main approaches I take ↓

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Option 1: Hold the position indefinitely until a change in market conditions

• (e.g. the market structure breaks in the opposite direction, or the price action just starts stalling, or the price action suddenly starts behaving very differently and looks very different compared to what it was just recently doing).

• I will only take this approach if the quality of the Breakout Trade is HIGH before entering. (noticeable "staircase" price action coming into the level + very large and consistent increase in the average volume as price is getting closer to the breakout level)

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Option 2: Exit at psychological level where a lot of limit sells are stacked

• this one is the easiest in terms of effort/skill required. If I'm doubting the quality of the trade I'll just take this approach to play it safe.

• just look at the orderbook, find the next big psychological level and frontrun it with your TP.

• you can be confident that the order is not spoofed since most people really do stack limit orders at psych levels.

• if a random huge limit sell is sitting at a random obscure price, these ones are more likely to be spoofs so don't rely on these too much.

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All time high levels often have a lot of action near them and often give either the biggest breakouts or the biggest reversals.

It's a good idea to have some kind of gameplan in place to trade them.

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1 Hint to know if your Trading Strategy is Broken

1 Hint to know if your Trading Strategy is Broken:

A little unfiltered rant ↓

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"if equity curve falls below X, then assume that something is wrong with the strategy".

There's no perfect way to define X

But X should be an abnormally high amount of drawdown relative to the strength of the strategy that you are using.

Let's use the following "extreme example"
• If the average expected drawdown of your strategy over 300~ trades is -25% and you're down -37% by trade #30, something might be off.

The greater the distance that your equity curve falls below X , the greater the likelihood that the strategy was not profitable in the first place and perhaps previous backtests that were done on it were overfit.

Looking at Volume makes trading Breakouts easier

Free Alpha

Looking at Volume makes trading Breakouts easier.

The chance that price breaks a level instead of bounces from it goes UP if the volume is consistently increasing over time.

Visualized↓

WHAT IS BREAKOUT → RE-TEST?

Breakout: When the price breaks a support or resistance level that it has tested before and moves above or below that level. Re-...