The COVID 19 Battle Winners And Losers

How I see Things

The COVID 19 Battle Winners And Losers

 By Kennedy Wabwire

22 March, 2020.

As Uganda admits the presence of the virus in Uganda. Actually that is not the news or the preparedness to fight the virus or the capacity to deal with the pandemic in the worst case scenario. Or those rosey stories of Uganda having the experience and expertise in fighting viruses which should be looked at within the right context. 

In the fight against AIDS and Ebola two things were on our side. Time and the international community. The spread of these two virus though more lethal was less rapid allowing the system sufficient time to fight back to flatten the curve and get on top of it. The second factor was the international community had free resources and capacity to run to our rescue. This time round every one’s house is on fire and no one has the time to come over to help fight our fire. 

But we still have very dependable allies that might mitigate the impact on Uganda. First is the sun, the virus is killed when directly hit by sun rays and the warm climate makes it very difficult for the virus to establish colonies from which to spread the infect people. Western European countries are praying for the  quick arrival of the warm weather to bring some respite. The second factor that will ensure Uganda comes off light is the vaccinated youthful population. With a substantial portion of the population falling in the non-venerable category. Uganda has a fighting chance. The third factor is the country has few high density population centres and social services like public transport that force people to come together in large numbers.

The best strategy for Uganda is to go draconian because we do not have a robust medical or public health system to take the virus head on. UK with 150,000 doctors and 320,000  nurses for a population of about 60 million is already feeling the strain on the system and is calling back retired medical staff. The simple truth is there is no medical system that is designed for such an epidemic. The trick is putting in place pre-emptive measures and then enforcing them strictly.

So far the draconian steps taken by government are good on paper. The challenge is going to be strict enforcement given the remoteness of government in the everyday life of the population. The government is shouting loud but are the people hearing listening, and responding. The effectiveness of those measures is in implementation not announcement. And this is the true challenge that Government has to deal with first and quickly given its poor record in this area. Already the 14 day mandatory quarantine if being fiercely challenged by returning Ugandans and reports of Churches opening for Sunday prayers is not good. But after closing the airport to passenger flights, the issue of mandatory quarantine will disappear. However small measures like suspending over the board tax (OTT) would allow the sharing and flow of information on how to defeat the virus plus earn some much needed goodwill from the people.

But the real challenge is going to be on the economy after the defeat of the virus. The draconian measures though good at fighting the virus, they do the exact opposite to the economy. At the end  the virus will be subdued but the economy will be devastated. And this is where we need to see the government coming out with practical solutions that will shore up the economy to make it bounce back. Starting with small measures like removing tax on mobile money transfer and OTT, raising the sums of money via mobile money transactions, asking the banks to suspend interest payments on loans, announcing a rent holiday for struggling commercial and private tenants, extending interest free loans for at least a year to businesses and guaranteeing private loans extended to manufacturing, deferring payment of VAT by businesses to give them breathing space until things clear. If need be government should print money to loan to businesses in the key sectors that is Tourism, manufacturing and Agriculture. 

Since COVID 19 has levelled the ground by locking all of us in the country and forcing all of us to be candidates for the same dilapidated medical care system. The money saved from medical tourism and overseas travel for the elites should be injected in stabilising the economy that will fund a decent care system. And our ageing elites and decision makers should also take this opportunity to reflect on the benefits of having a health system like those they go to in foreign lands. Or on the day like this when the only hospital doors open for them are those in Uganda.